Probabilistic Outcomes

The deeper we explore our universe, the more we encounter probability distributions rather than deterministic outcomes. This complexity adds richness to our world, reflecting the uncertainty that humanity has long sought to understand and control, building predictive systems to navigate this inherent unpredictability. Our crowning achievement is in quantum mechanics and field theories, where probabilistic outcomes are accurately predicted, pushing the boundaries of our understanding of reality. Still despite our achievements we still struggle to accurately predict the weather!

In EVE Frontier, all actions player and autonomous agent alike are fundamentally subject to probabilistic outcomes. Players have varying degrees of influence - direct, indirect, or none at all - over these outcomes.

We anticipate that players will, at times, create new control mechanisms that transcend logic and evolve into cultural phenomena, much like what has occurred in EVE Online. A prime example is the belief in the deity Bob, where players have formed a culture around the idea that devotion to Bob grants favor in the mysterious and unpredictable realm of wormholes. This blending of gameplay with emergent mythology is something that underlines the importance of getting this right such that we see similar phenomena flourish within the Frontier as well.

As player-created structures are codified and more advanced tools are developed, increased pressure is placed on the system's probabilistic outcomes and its inherent impermanence. This tension preserves the chaotic nature of the environment, even as human efforts to impose stability and order aim to facilitate patterned and predictable results. Despite these attempts, the unpredictability of the world will endure, ensuring that the dynamic and volatile essence of the Frontier will remain intact.

To keep the universe engaging, its resource sources are designed to be dynamic. This ebb and flow of uncertainty in resource availability naturally leads to fluctuations in supply and demand, shifting the game's meta over time much like the changing tides of an ocean.

Probabilistic outcomes underpin all circumstances in the game, including manufacturing, combat, object degradation and travel. How one adapts to these contextualized changing circumstances is a main point of superiority for human players over the single-minded autonomous bot. In the face of probabilistic outcomes, situational awareness, knowledge, skilled proficiency and social cooperation with others is required to master the game’s universe.

The movement of these raw resources is governed by probabilistic distributions rooted in digital physics, making them impossible to predict. This unpredictability is a key driver of persistent market volatility, ensuring that the economy remains in constant flux. However, the market acts on its own - we do not impose external conditions with the goal of changing market operations.

Generating randomness for these probabilistic outcomes within the deterministic nature of blockchain is a known challenge; in fact it is a challenge for all of computer science. Despite this challenge, we will provide a verifiable and transparent source of randomness that maintains integrity in all game outcomes. We do not exert control over how players exert their ability to influence the probabilistic outcomes, and do not operate the randomization engine. This will increase transparency (and importantly, independent auditability) in how players interact with the randomized environment through the use of privacy preserving protocols.